Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part II. Uncertainty and mitigation     

Stephan Lewandowsky  James S. Risbey  Michael Smithson  Ben R. Newell 《Climatic change》2014,124(1-2):39-52

In public debate surrounding climate change, scientific uncertainty is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. This article examines the role of uncertainty about future climate change in determining the likely success or failure of mitigative action. We show by Monte Carlo simulation that greater uncertainty translates into a greater likelihood that mitigation efforts will fail to limit global warming to a target (e.g., 2 °C). The effect of uncertainty can be reduced by limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Taken together with the fact that greater uncertainty also increases the potential damages arising from unabated emissions (Lewandowsky et al. 2014), any appeal to uncertainty implies a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.  相似文献   

Exploring the dynamics of the disaggregated intercity corporate network in the Yangtze River Delta,China: a relational event approach     

Li  Luqi  Derudder  Ben  Shen  Wei  Kong  Xiang 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2022,24(1):115-140

Journal of Geographical Systems - There has been a proliferation of studies trying to explain the driving forces behind the formation and evolution of intercity corporate networks. Previous...  相似文献   

Late Miocene sedimentary architecture of the Ebro Continental Margin (Western Mediterranean): implications to the Messinian Salinity Crisis     

Alejandra L. Cameselle  Roger Urgeles  Ben De Mol  Angelo Camerlenghi  Jason C. Canning 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,103(2):423-440

The Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC) resulted from a significant multi-phase drop and subsequent reflooding of the Mediterranean Sea from 5.96 to 5.33 Ma. Well-developed drainage networks, characterized by step-like profiles and abrasion platforms, are associated to this event. The Ebro Continental Margin (Western Mediterranean) presents an additional complexity since the capture of the drainage of the adjacent subaerial Ebro Basin took place sometime prior to the Messinian stage. Using 3D seismic reflection data, this work provides new insights into the origin of the step-like profile of the Messinian erosional surface (MES) and timing of the capture of the subaerial Ebro Basin. The results obtained indicate a sedimentary-active continental slope and delta progradation during Middle-Late Miocene, in a normal regressive context associated to a pre-Messinian proto-Ebro River. The mature development attained by the Messinian Ebro River network during the MSC corroborates that the capture of the Ebro Basin occurred prior to the MSC. The configuration of the clinoforms below the MES suggests that deltaic sediments of the Messinian Paleo-Ebro River deposited during the Tortonian and initial Messinian sea-level drawdown. The MES formed at the top of the Tortonian Highstand, where a fluvial network was deeply carved, and in the topset region of the Messinian Falling Stage Systems Tract, where minor erosion occurred. Fluvial deposits are outstandingly preserved on the main valleys of the MES. Therefore, the step-like profile of the MES was not created during Zanclean inundation, but during the latest stages of the main Messinian sea-level fall and lowstand.  相似文献   

Suitability assessment of deep groundwater for drinking and irrigation use in the Djeffara aquifers (Northern Gabes,south-eastern Tunisia)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mohsen Ben Alaya  Salwa Saidi  Thouraya Zemni  Fouad Zargouni 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(8):3387-3421

The multilayered Djeffara aquifer system, south-eastern Tunisia, has been intensively used as a primary source to meet the growing needs of the various sectors (drinking, agricultural and industrial purposes). The analysis of groundwater chemical characteristics provides much important information useful in water resources management. Detailed knowledge of the geochemical evolution of groundwater and assessing the water quality status for special use are the main objective of any water monitoring study. An attempt has been made for the first time in this region to characterize aquifer behavior and appreciate the quality and/or the suitability of groundwater for drinking and irrigation purposes. In order to attend this objective, a total of 54 groundwater samples were collected and analyzed during January 2008 for the major cations (sodium, calcium, magnesium and potassium), anions (chloride, sulfate, bicarbonate), trace elements (boron, strontium and fluoride), and physicochemical parameters (temperature, pH, total dissolved salts and electrical conductivity). The evolution of chemical composition of groundwater from recharge areas to discharge areas is characterized by increasing sodium, chloride and sulfate contents as a result of leaching of evaporite rock. In this study, three distinct chemical trends in groundwater were identified. The major reactions responsible for the chemical evolution of groundwater in the investigated area fall into three categories: (1) calcite precipitation, (2) gypsum and halite dissolution, and (3) ion exchange. Based on the physicochemical analyses, irrigation quality parameters such as sodium absorption ratio (SAR), percentage of sodium, residual sodium carbonate, residual sodium bicarbonate, and permeability index (PI) were calculated. In addition, groundwater quality maps were elabortaed using the geographic information system to delineate spatial variation in physico-chemical characteristics of the groundwater samples. The integration of various dataset indicates that the groundwater of the Djeffara aquifers of the northern Gabes is generally very hard, brackish and high to very high saline and alkaline in nature. The water suitability for drinking and irrigation purposes was evaluated by comparing the values of different water quality parameters with World Health Organization (WHO) guideline values for drinking water. Piper trilinear diagram was constructed to identify groundwater groups where the relative major anionic and cationic concentrations are expressed in percentage of the milliequivalent per liter (meq/l), and it was demonstrated that the majority of the samples belongs to SO₄–Cl–Ca–Na, Cl–SO₄–Na–Ca and Na–Cl hydrochemical facies. As a whole, all the analyzed waters from this groundwater have revealed that this water is unsuitable for drinking purposes when comparing to the drinking water standards. Salinity, high electric conductivity, sodium adsorption ratio and sodium percentages indicate that most of the groundwater samples are inappropriate for irrigation. The SAR vary from medium (S2) to very high (S4) sodicity. Therefore, the water of the Djeffara aquifers of the northern Gabes is dominantly of the C4–S2 class representing 61.23 % of the total wells followed by C4–S3 and C4–S4 classes at 27.27 and 11.5 % of the wells, respectively. Based on the US Salinity Classification, most of the groundwater is unsuitable for irrigation due to its high salt content, unless certain measures for salinity control are undertaken.  相似文献   

Atmospheric pollution in North Africa (ecosystems–atmosphere interactions): a case study in the mining basin of El Guettar–M’Dilla (southwestern Tunisia)     

Naziha Mokadem  Younes Hamed  Amina Ben Sâad  Imed Gargouri 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2014,7(5):2071-2079

Air quality transcends all scales with in the atmosphere from the local to the global with handovers and feedbacks at each scale interaction. Air quality has manifold effects on health, ecosystems, heritage and climate. New insights into the characterisation of both natural and anthropogenic emissions are reviewed looking at both natural (e.g. dust and lightning) as well as plant emissions. In the phosphate mining area (El Guettar–M’Dilla basin: Southwestern Tunisia), several diseases have been known as cancer, respiratory, allergies, cardiovascular, dental fluorosis, stress, etc. These diseases are directly related with the installation of the industrial sector of the CPG (from 1896) and the deforestation and the ecosystem degradation (fauna and flora).  相似文献   

云南干旱“常态化”的分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

付奔  胡关东  杨帆  王龙 《水文》2014,34(4):82-85

近年来云南持续发生严重干旱,云南干旱是否日趋"常态化"成为社会各界关心的一个热点问题,相关报道不断见诸媒体。本文从水文的角度对云南省的历史干旱、水文要素以及趋势预测等方面进行了深入的分析。在历史依据和现代气象水文观测数据的支撑下,考察近100年来全球增暖可能导致部分地区干旱化的可能,从而认为近年来提出的云南干旱"常态化"存在科学依据;但干旱"常态化"仅能局限于近现代时期这一时间范畴,对于今后更长时期云南省干旱发展趋势,依据现有技术手段及研究成果尚难以判断把握。  相似文献   

Cohesive‐frictional model for bond and splitting action of prestressing wire     

J. C. Gálvez  J. M. Benítez  M. J. Casati  B. S. Tork  D. A. Cendón 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2011,35(11):1257-1277

This paper presents a numerical procedure for bond between indented wires and concrete, and the coupled splitting process of the surrounding concrete. The bond model is an interface, non‐associative, plasticity model. It is coupled with a cohesive fracture model for concrete to take into account the splitting of such concrete. Bond between steel and concrete is fundamental for the transmission of stresses between both materials in precast prestressed concrete. Indented wires are used to improve the bond in these structural elements. The radial component of the prestressing force, increased by Poisson's effect, may split the surrounding concrete, decreasing the wire confinement and diminishing the bonding. The combined action of the bond and the splitting is studied with the proposed model. The results of the numerical model are compared with the results of a series of tests, such as those which showed splitting induced by the bond between wire and concrete. Tests with different steel indentation depths were performed. The numerical procedure accurately reproduces the experimental records and improves knowledge of this complex process. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Putative Meteoritic Craters in Río Cuarto (Central Argentina) Interpreted as Eolian Structures     

Cione  Alberto L.  Tonni  Eduardo P.  San Cristóbal  Jorge  Hernández  Pedro J.  Benítez  Adrián  Bordignon  Fernando  Perí  Jorge A. 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2002,91(1):9-24

Ten oblong aligned depressions in the Río Cuarto area (provincia de Córdoba, Argentina) were supposed to be the result of very-low-angle Holocene meteoroid impacts. However, we consider that authors that studied the structures did not demonstrated their extraterrestrial origin. We suggest that an eolian origin for the structures of Río Cuarto is more likely. Actually, these landforms integrate large systems of similar deflation/accumulation geoforms aligned according to predominant winds during different periods.  相似文献   

Do accretion discs regulate the rotation of young stars?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S. P. Littlefair  Tim Naylor  Ben Burningham  R. D. Jeffries 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,358(2):341-352

We present a photometric study of I -band variability in the young cluster IC 348. The main purpose of the study was to identify periodic stars. In all, we find 50 periodic stars, of which 32 were previously unknown. For the first time in IC 348, we discover periods in significant numbers of lower-mass stars  ( M < 0.25 M_⊙)  and classical T Tauri stars. This increased sensitivity to periodicities is a result of the enhanced depth and temporal density of our observations, compared with previous studies. The period distribution is at first glance similar to that seen in the Orion nebula cluster (ONC), with the higher-mass stars  ( M > 0.25 M_⊙)  showing a bi-modal period distribution concentrated around periods of 2 and 8 d, and the lower-mass stars showing a uni-modal distribution, heavily biased towards fast rotators. Closer inspection of the period distribution shows that the higher-mass stars show a significant dearth of fast rotators, compared to the ONC, whilst the low-mass stars are rotating significantly faster than those in Orion. We find no correlation between rotation period and K – L colour or Hα equivalent width.
We also present a discussion of our own IC 348 data in the context of previously published period distributions for the ONC, the Orion flanking fields and NGC 2264. We find that the previously claimed correlation between infrared excess and rotation period in the ONC might, in fact, result from a correlation between infrared excess and mass. We also find a marked difference in period distributions between NGC 2264 and IC 348, which presents a serious challenge to the disc-locking paradigm, given the similarity in ages and disc fractions between the two clusters.  相似文献   

Zircon U-Pb Geochronology and Geochemical Characteristics of the Volcanic Host Rocks from the Tongyu VHMS Copper Deposit in the Western North Qinling Orogen and Their Geological Significance     

XIONG Xiao  ZHU Laimin  LI Ben  ZHANG Guowei  GONG Hujun  ZHENG Jun  JIANG Hang 《《地质学报》英文版》2015,89(6):1926-1946

Precise in situ zircon U-Pb dating and Lu–Hf isotopic measurement using an LA-ICP-MS system, whole-rock major and trace element geochemistry and Sr–Nd isotope geochemistry were conducted on the volcanic host rocks of the Tongyu copper deposit on the basis of further understanding of its geological characteristics. Three zircon samples from the volcanic host rocks yielded 206Pb/238 U weighted average ages ranging from 436±4 Ma to 440±5 Ma, which are statistically indistinguishable and coeval with the ca. 440 Ma northward subduction event of the Paleo-Qinling oceanic slab. The volcanic host rocks were products of magmatic differentiation that evolved from basalt to andesite to dacite to rhyolite, forming an integrated tholeiitic island arc volcanic rock suite. The primitive mantle-normalized trace element patterns for most samples show characteristics of island arc volcanic rocks, such as relative enrichment of LILE(e.g. Th, U, Pb and La) and depletion of HFSE(e.g. Nb, Ta, Ti, Zr and Hf). Discrimination diagrams of Ta/Yb vs Th/Yb, Ta vs Th, Yb vs Th/Ta, Ta/Hf vs Th/Hf, Hf/3 vs Th vs Nb/16, La vs La/Nb and Nb vs Nb/Th all suggest that both the volcanic host rocks from the Tongyu copper deposit and the volcanic rocks from the regional Xieyuguan Group were formed in an island arc environment related to subduction of an oceanic slab. Values of ISr(0.703457 to 0.708218) and εNd(t)(-2 to 5.8) indicate that the source materials of volcanic rocks from the Tongyu copper deposit and the Xieyuguan Group originated from the metasomatised mantle wedge with possible crustal material assimilation. Most of the volcanic rock samples show good agreement with the values of typical island arc volcanic rocks in the ISr-εNd(t) diagram. The involvement of crustal-derived material in the magma of the volcanic rocks from the Tongyu copper deposit was also reflected in the zircon εHf(t) values, which range from-3.08 to 10.7, and the existence of inherited ancient xenocrystic zircon cores(2616±39 Ma and 1297±22 Ma). The mineralization of the Tongyu copper deposit shows syn-volcanic characteristics such as layered orebodies interbedded with the volcanic rock strata, thus, the zircon U-Pb age of the volcanic host rocks can approximately represent the mineralization age of the Tongyu copper deposit. Both the Meigou pluton and the volcanic host rocks were formed during the ca. 440 Ma northward subduction of the Paleo-Qinling Ocean when high oxygen fugacity aqueous hydrothermal fluid released by dehydration of the slab and the overlying sediments fluxed into the mantle wedge, triggered partial melting of the mantle wedge, and activated and extracted Cu and other ore-forming elements. The magma and ore-bearing fluid upwelled and erupted, and consequently formed the island arc volcanic rock suite and the Tongyu VHMS-type copper deposit.  相似文献